Biotech has been a very unsexy area to invest for the past four years (excluding AI biotech)

As always, things are cyclical which means therapeutics funding will come back. A return to things insulated from AI and tangible in the real world. But how will this cycle be different from last one? What will change? How will biotech look post-AGI??

• Clinical trials will be much cheaper to outsource and operate (AI automated CRO). Biotechs will essentially operate clin trials themselves with a copilot chatbot.

• New companies created around moats of clinical data (CRO that owns de-identified clinical data)

• Longevity will be back (ultimate holy grail of tx). Techy takes on drugs will come back. What is the durable company? Not a reg hypewave/arbitrage

  • This doesn’t fundamentally change the economics of drugs. What are new & better ways to finance drugs? Portfolio style? LBO with an existing commercial drug (must own the distribution/commercialization)

  • Where is the biology mature enough that you can make a handful of bets?

• Commercialization of drugs will become cheaper to own

  • Will there be dedicated outsourcing companies for this? Shopify for drugs?

• A new experiment: LBO financing of drug with an existing (well-commercialized GLP1 generic?)

• More effective medical devices (bioelectricity, radiotherapies, bci) and consumer medical devices

  • IR contact lenses

  • Smaller DBS probes