Spicy takes
These may change as my thinking evolves but thought they’d be fun to document
Novel drugs markets will need to be blazed by a forward-thinking mid-size Pharma (not a biotech). Biotechs face structural headwinds that bend you towards conventional indications
Anomaly success stories (defense/Anduril; bio/StemCentrx) aren’t indicative of a pattern. Despite SV hype cycles, software/tech margins don’t map well to other industries. Finding anomalies is the goal- not extrapolating one case study into an industry
In general, people place too much weight on silicon valley/startup wisdom. Playbooks are for guidance, not gospel.
The Mill just isn’t that good. Sorry. Toast is dry & overpriced.