Spicy takes

These may change as my thinking evolves but thought they’d be fun to document

  1. Drugs (for novel markets) will need to be built by a mid-size Pharma (not a biotech). Biotechs face structural headwinds that bend you towards convention

  2. Software/tech venture don’t map well to other industries. Anomaly success stories (defense/Anduril; bio/StemCentrx) are not indicative of a pattern. Finding anomalies is the goal- not extrapolating one case study into an entire industry*

    *This matter more for investor pov tbh. For the founders, being resourceful is necessary

  3. Relatedly, too much weight on silicon valley/startup wisdom for seemingly unrelated businesses. Playbooks are built for guidance, not gospel

  4. SV is uniquely susceptible to idea-bubbles (perceived idea validity becomes confused for underlying truth). Perhaps an unavoidable cost of startup optimism culture

  5. The Mill just isn’t that good! Toast is dry & overpriced.